Democrats Surge in Polls Ahead of Midterm Elections 2024

WASHINGTON: With less than 24 hours remaining before Americans head to the polls, Democrats have widened their lead over Republicans in national congressional polling, strengthening expectations that they could gain control of at least one chamber of Congress.

President Donald Trump, however, has dismissed concerns about his party’s electoral prospects, predicting that Republicans will perform strongly and potentially surprise their critics.

According to the Call the Map polling average released on Sunday, Democrats held a 7.8-percentage-point advantage over Republicans. A Big Data Poll conducted on October 30 showed Democratic support at 52.3 per cent among likely voters, compared with 40 per cent for Republicans. Among registered voters, Democrats stood at 51.2 per cent, while Republicans received 39.5 per cent support.

The same survey found that Trump’s disapproval rating had reached 58.6 per cent among likely voters. However, national polling does not necessarily reflect the outcome of individual state contests, where control of Congress will ultimately be determined.

Trump’s campaign appearances in Iowa and Kansas highlight the importance Republicans are placing on defending Senate seats in states he comfortably won in the 2024 presidential election. Nevertheless, Democratic candidates have emerged as increasingly competitive challengers in several key races.

The rising cost of living has remained central to the Democratic campaign. Increasing expenses for groceries, housing, healthcare and fuel have become major concerns for American households. Meanwhile, tariffs and the economic consequences of the conflict with Iran have further intensified economic uncertainty among voters.

The Michigan Senate race is emerging as one of the closely watched contests. Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed is challenging Republican Mike Rogers in a race that could have significant implications for the balance of power in the Senate.

El-Sayed has also faced personal criticism from Trump, who has questioned his loyalty to the United States and referred to the September 11, 2001 attacks while commenting on his Muslim identity.

Democrats see the House of Representatives as their strongest opportunity to change congressional control. They need a net gain of just three seats to secure a majority. The Senate presents a more difficult challenge, with Democrats needing to gain four seats to overcome the Republican majority.

Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Alaska are among the key states expected to play a decisive role in determining the Senate’s political balance.

Record-Breaking Early Voter Turnout

More than 53 million Americans have already cast their ballots ahead of the midterm elections, setting a new national record for early voting in a midterm election.

According to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, more than 53 million early ballots had been recorded nationally by Sunday afternoon, including approximately 30 million votes cast in person.

The figure has surpassed the previous midterm early-voting record of 45.9 million ballots, set during the 2022 elections.

Early in-person voting was entering its final phase across much of the country on Sunday. Several major states, including New York, New Jersey, Michigan and Connecticut, were reaching the final day of their early-voting periods.

Meanwhile, California, Illinois and Arkansas were allowing voters to cast ballots through Monday, while Colorado and Hawaii were continuing early voting through Election Day on November 3.

Texas, California and Florida recorded the highest early-voting totals, with 7,630,789, 5,504,307 and 5,148,276 ballots, respectively, according to the Election Lab’s latest figures.

Georgia and North Carolina followed with 2,823,265 and 2,612,250 early votes, respectively.

Several states have also reported unprecedented participation. Georgia recorded more than 2.8 million early votes before its early-voting period ended on October 30, surpassing the previous midterm record of approximately 2.5 million set in 2022.

In South Carolina, the State Election Commission announced on October 26 that early voting had established a new record for a gubernatorial election. Nearly 564,000 ballots had been cast by 3pm local time, exceeding the previous record of 561,563 votes recorded in 2022.