WASHINGTON: The United States is heading towards high-stakes midterm elections on November 3, 2026, with control of Congress, dozens of governorships and state legislatures hanging in the balance as Democrats seek to challenge President Donald Trump’s Republican Party.
Early voting has been underway for weeks, with more than 100 million Americans potentially expected to cast ballots if turnout mirrors the 2022 midterm elections. Political advertising spending has also reached unprecedented levels, with a record $3.8 billion spent on advertisements aired through October 12, according to AdImpact.
The most expensive contests include battleground Senate races in Texas, Ohio and Michigan. Campaign finance records show that billionaire Elon Musk has spent approximately $366 million supporting Republicans.
Although midterm elections traditionally attract fewer voters than presidential contests, their outcome could significantly reshape the political landscape ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
Control of Congress hangs in the balance
Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 majority in the House of Representatives, alongside two vacancies and an independent who caucuses with the Republicans. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure control of the chamber.
The battle for the Senate is equally consequential. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats must gain four seats to take control. Contests in Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia are among those expected to play a decisive role.
A Democratic victory in either chamber could significantly complicate Trump’s legislative agenda and intensify congressional scrutiny of his administration.
Trump faces political test amid economic concerns
Midterm elections have historically proved challenging for the party occupying the White House. Trump and congressional Republicans are therefore facing a critical test as voters assess the administration’s performance.
A September Reuters/Ipsos poll put Trump’s approval rating at 32 per cent, amid concerns over rising consumer prices and other domestic economic issues.
Democrats appear to have an enthusiasm advantage in early voting, while some Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 may be reconsidering their political preferences amid economic frustrations and concerns over immigration enforcement.
However, a decisive Democratic victory is far from guaranteed. Republicans could benefit from their campaign spending advantage, continued voter scepticism towards Democrats and concerns among moderate voters about progressive candidates.
Midterm elections could shape the 2028 presidential race
The outcome of the November elections could influence both the direction of Trump’s remaining presidency and the strategies of politicians preparing for the 2028 presidential campaign.
Historical precedents underline the potential consequences. In 2010, Republicans gained 63 seats in the House during Barack Obama’s presidency, ending the Democrats’ majority amid economic dissatisfaction and opposition to healthcare reform.
In 2018, during Trump’s first presidency, Democrats gained a net 40 seats in the House, although Republicans strengthened their position in the Senate by gaining two seats.
The 2026 elections will also determine contests for governors in 36 states, alongside legislative races across nearly the entire country.
According to Ballotpedia, Republicans currently control approximately 55 per cent of state legislative seats, compared with 43.8 per cent held by Democrats.
Hakeem Jeffries could become House speaker
If Democrats win control of the House, Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York is widely positioned as the leading candidate for speaker.
Jeffries would become the first Black American to hold the powerful position. As speaker, he could direct House committees to investigate Trump administration policies and allegations of misconduct, while advancing Democratic priorities on healthcare, housing, groceries, energy and other living costs.
Republicans, meanwhile, would seek to retain the speakership under current Speaker Mike Johnson or another Republican candidate. Their priorities are expected to include further tax cuts, increased defence spending and reductions in social welfare programmes.
Key House contests draw national attention
Several closely contested House races are attracting national attention, including Republican Representative Mike Lawler’s re-election campaign in New York, a district won by Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in 2024.
An open seat in a competitive Nebraska district is also drawing attention amid concerns over rising fuel costs affecting farmers and truckers. Democrats are additionally targeting Republican-held seats in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
Beyond the candidates and policy debates, concerns remain over the possibility of election-related legal challenges and attempts to interfere with the voting process.
Trump has repeatedly alleged widespread election fraud since the 2020 presidential election, claims that have not been substantiated by evidence of widespread fraud. State election officials and congressional Democrats are preparing for potential legal disputes over election administration.
With control of Congress at stake, the November 3 elections are expected to serve as a major referendum on Trump’s presidency and could determine the balance of political power in Washington for the remainder of his term.
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